DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z TUE 18/03 - 06Z WED 19/03 2003
ISSUED: 17/03 17:44Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN REGIONS.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA.

SYNOPSIS

PERSISTANT UPPER HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF EUROPE... WITH EXTENSIVE UPPER LOW PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS REACHING THE ALPINE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ... AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY INTENSE SFC LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX OF THE S MEDITERRANEAN UPPER TROUGH ... AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAKER SFC LOW JUST OFF THE MOROCCAN WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION

...MEDITERRANEAN...
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA ... CURRENTLY PRESENT FIELD OF MODESTLY DEEP CELLULAR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER VORT MAX AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH ... SHOULD SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. STRENGTHENING VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE S BALKAN STATES AND CRETE ON TUESDAY ... AND CONCOMMITANT REGION OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE RATHER WEAK ... LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG. INTERACTION WITH THE HILLY TERRAIN OF EASTERN GREECE... THE S AEGEAN ISLANDS AND CRETE MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT HELICAL INFLOW INTO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ... AND SHALLOW MESOCYCLONES MAY FORM. THOUGH LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR QUITE UNLIKELY ... GIVEN QUITE LOW LCL HEIGHTS ... CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AEGEAN SEA AND EAST GREECE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE W MEDITERRANEAN SEA BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER SE IBERIA SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ... AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE.

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